220727173759 01 us gdp second quarter restricted super tease

US economic system contracts once more, fueling recession fears


GDP, a broad measure of financial exercise, fell 0.9% on an annualized foundation from April to June. This decline marks a significant symbolic limitation to essentially the most used – albeit casual – definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of unfavorable financial progress.

The extremely anticipated information launch has gained immense significance as buyers, coverage makers and odd Americans search a point of readability within the present tumultuous financial atmosphere.

The unfavorable decline proven on second-quarter GDP exercise in Thursday’s first quarter — information that shall be revised twice — was principally pushed by a decline in stock ranges. Businesses in latest quarters have tried to replenish stockpiles pulled up in the course of the pandemic – and in an try to regulate for provide chain turmoil, they’ve overstocked themselves at a time when shoppers have made some purchases. pulled again on. Therefore, the funding in stock in the course of the second quarter was decrease as in comparison with the primary quarter.

“The usual measure is that the economy is slowing down, and that’s why [Federal Reserve] “We are usually not in a recession,” said Ryan Sweet, who leads real-time economics at Moody’s Analytics.

Although early Thursday forecast showed a sharp decline in the economy’s expansion of 6.7% in the second quarter of 2021, the White House has been adamant that the world’s largest economy would grow despite being hit by decades of high inflation and supply shocks. economy is. Basically healthy.

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Administration It even took the unusual step of publishing an explainer, maintaining that the economic contraction, in two consecutive quarters, does not in itself constitute a recession. Posted by White House blog entry It said last week that in addition to GDP, data related to the labor market, corporate and personal spending, production and income all go into the official determination of the recession.
Nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research The official arbiter of recession is, And the verdict is not likely to be delivered any time soon. The group’s business cycle dating committee usually weighs a lot of data over a period of months before making a determination.

“They have a really strict definition: it is a broad-based and protracted weak point within the economic system,” Sweet said. “And it isn’t broad-based. It’s actually centered in stock and buying and selling — enterprise was an enormous drag on first quarter GDP.”

Additionally, the labor market is doing effectively, he mentioned. monthly job benefits According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an average of more than 450,000 during the first six months of the year. However, while those benefits are shrinking, as was anticipated, the past few weeks have also seen a rise in jobless claims.

On Thursday, the BLS’s latest weekly jobless claims data showed that first-time claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended July 23 stood at an estimated 256,000. This total is down 5,000 from last week’s level, which was revised upwards of 10,000 claims. 261,000.

“Unemployment claims have actually risen above their cyclical lows,” Sweet said. “I feel it is a reflection of an economic system shifting right into a decrease gear.”

Economists say the biggest reason for prematurely calling a recession based on Thursday’s data That data can and probably will change. Subsequent revisions to first-quarter GDP figures, for example, changed from an initial drop of 1.4% to 1.6%, and Thursday’s number is only the first of three estimates.

Adjustments are the norm rather than the exception, as the Department of Commerce frequently refines its calculations as new information becomes available. About a third of the initial GDP release relies on statistical extrapolations and assumptions in the absence of hard data, according to Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,

“These are normally single cut-off date, snapshots. It’s virtually like taking a look at a stability sheet versus an earnings assertion in 1 / 4,” said Eric Friedman, chief investment officer at US Bank Wealth Management.

“New info might emerge,” he said, and when it does, those variables change the outcome.

Sometimes, the differences between the estimates are significant. For example, a revision in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2008 showed that economic activity actually fell by -8.4% yearly, indicating a much deeper recession than the initial estimate of -3.8%.

Right now, the biggest blemish on the lens preventing economists from getting a clear picture is the creation of inventories and a similar imbalance in the country’s general trade flows.

“Lots of what you are beginning to see and listen to proper now could be taking place with stock … Inventory is a matter, stock is the combo of outlets in addition to the quantity,” Friedman mentioned.

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The rush to load up on items in the course of the previous two quarters was a miscalculation for firms like big-box shops. walmart And Target has both told investors they expect price cuts. To transfer products. But from a macroeconomic standpoint, some experts believe those missteps meant the economy was not as anemic in the first quarter as the fall in GDP might have meant.

Anna Rathbun, chief investment officer at CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, suggested that the 1.6% contraction in first-quarter GDP was artificially low as businesses began stockpiling inventory in the last quarter of last year. He said it pushed economic activity which otherwise would have taken place in the early months of this year.

“The fourth quarter, for me, was slightly bloated,” Rathbun said. “Everyone was simply hoarding.”

Furthermore, when companies import more and export less, that dynamic weighs on GDP, said Jacob Kierkegaard, a senior fellow at the Petersen Institute for International Economics.

“It’s the worth of manufacturing inside the bodily borders of the United States, so if in case you have, hypothetically, exports which might be flat and excessive imports, your commerce deficit is widening. In that sense, a rising commerce deficit exceeds GDP. has decreased,” he mentioned, particularly when mixed with wild swings in costs.

“When you have extreme volatility in commodity prices, and especially in periods of high inflation in general, it can be misleading and, in my opinion, portray an overly negative view of the economy. does,” Kierkegaard mentioned. “We have to be careful in saying that the GDP number is a perfectly valid metric for economic well-being in the country.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated on Wednesday the significance of contemplating quite a lot of key financial measures because the central financial institution determines future charge strikes. However, Powell mentioned the primary studying of the GDP report must be taken “with a grain of salt”.


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